Step 3: Forecast 3–6 Months Ahead (Without a CFO)

You don’t need a finance team to build a basic forecast. A simple projection of revenue, expenses, and cash flow helps you anticipate when to raise, hire, or slow down — before you're forced to.

Why This Matters

Many founders get “caught off guard” by cash shortfalls — not because they can’t predict the future, but because they never tried. Even a lightweight forecast helps you make smarter timing decisions. You’ll know when your growth is outpacing your budget or when that runway runs out sooner than expected.

Key Activities

Build a spreadsheet projecting 3–6 months of:
Revenue
Operating expenses
Cash position
Create three cases: best, base, and worst
Update monthly to reflect actuals and revised assumptions
Use it to test hiring plans, fundraising runway, and marketing bets

Common Mistakes

Forecasting only right before a raise
Assuming one scenario = reality
Not accounting for seasonality or contract timing
Forgetting major cash outflows (e.g., tax payments, annual tools)
Letting the model go stale after initial setup

Signals You're Doing It Right

You can answer “how long can we afford X?” with data
Hiring decisions are stress-tested against worst-case runway
Forecast is updated at least once a month
Best/worst/base cases are shared with co-founders or investors
You’re never surprised by a cash shortfall

Red Flags

You don’t know how long your current cash will last in 3 months
You’ve only modeled a “best case” scenario
A big cash drop hits and no one saw it coming
The forecast hasn’t been touched in over a month
You’re making hiring or spend decisions based on vibes, not projections

Who Should Own This

Founder or COO, with support from finance mentor or fractional CFO if available